Don’t get too excited yet.
As far as politics goes in this country, we all get too excited too fast.
So SAPP (Sabah Progressive Party) will back a no-confidence motion against PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi when Parliament resumes on Monday. We will have to wait and see. Does this really affect Abdullah’s popularity? Hell no, he is already unpopular enough. But one thing is for sure, it will embolden other Barisan Nasional component party members and perhaps, make Umno quake in their boots.
Meanwhile, the winner will be Najib of course. That’s the reason why the succession plan was announced. So Umno and Abdullah will tell the public how they’ve got it all planned, all along. Who says the party has in-fighting? Abdullah will voluntarily step down not because people asked of it, but because he consented to a smooth transition of power. Same difference but you know the power of words. Pick the right ones and fool the rakyat. Besides, I really don’t see how this will benefit the rakyat in ANY way at all. What the hell am I going to get from all this? Umno and BN is still there, I’m just waiting to vote them out again. We cannot always rely on politicians you see.
But focusing on the motion on Monday, after reading Kit’s blog (who knows Parliament infinitely more than I do so I’ll take his word for it), I too doubt anything will actually happen:
With the ruling coalition commanding unbroken two-thirds parliamentary majority in the 11 general elections since Merdeka in 1957 until the recent political tsunami of the March 2008 general election, there had never been any no confidence motion against the Prime Minister in Malaysian parliamentary history.
The Parliamentary Standing Orders do not have special provision for a no confidence motion.
In the circumstances, a no confidence motion may be regarded as an ordinary motion under Standing Order 27 which requires notice of 14 days to be given – making it impossible for such a no confidence motion to be tabled on Monday, June 23, 2008 as the earliest would be July 2 if the no confidence motion is submitted today.
Standing Order 18 which allows an MP to move a motion to adjourn the House to discuss a definite matter of urgent public importance will be inappropriate and unhelpful as it only allows one hour debate on the specified issue without any vote being taken at the end of the debate.
The only way for a no confidence motion to be tabled and debated on Monday is for the Speaker to treat it as a substantive and extraordinary motion which should take precedence and priority over all parliamentary business which does not need to comply with the requisite 14-day notice and publishing it as the first item of parliamentary business after Question Time in the Parliamentary Order of Business on Monday.
In doing so, however, the Speaker is likely be in direct loggerheads with the government of the day and must be prepared to pay the consequences of such decision.
I see little possibility of SAPP’s No Confidence Motion against Abdullah as Prime Minister being tabled and debated on Monday unless there is a second political tsunami in the next few days, with waves of support from other Barisan Nasional MPs from Sabah, Sarawak and Peninsula Malaysia making it a credible parliamentary move.
It is a last paragraph that stood out. Will there be waves of support? I don’t know. It’s like wondering where and who the 30 BN MPs supposed to crossover to Pakatan as alleged by Anwar Ibrahim are. There is not point in anticipating anything beyond political sandiwara. Sapp being the jilted lover now out for revenge. Umno will hire thugs and bully Sapp. In the end they will run home to mommy and daddy mack and wait for orders on what to do next. We will all sit back and take it all in, only to forget the real issues at hand like how the hell are we coping with the super spike in living costs.
Until I see Sapp quit BN or the whole lot of them crossing over to Pakatan, I’m not getting all hot and bothered over this :)